People often think that water temperatures alone dictate tropical storm development and strengthening, but we have to look at more than one factor.
Water temperatures must be 80 degrees or warmer for tropical development, but that’s not the only ingredient – dry air and wind shear also play a part. It doesn’t matter if waters are warm enough if there is dry air or wind shear around.
It is not uncommon to have a hurricane like Nate occur during October. As you see in the graphic, there have been many including Juan in 1985, Lili in 2002 and Hilda in 1964.